Crypto markets are heading into 2026 with fundamental changes in market structure rather than just price movements, according to Kraken's latest market outlook. Global Economist Thomas Perfumo argued that while Bitcoin remains the primary lens for risk sentiment, the channels for demand, liquidity, and risk have significantly evolved with institutional flows reshaping the traditional crypto cycle.
Perfumo pointed to the growing influence of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury companies in price discovery, noting that despite nearly $44 billion in net spot demand for Bitcoin in 2025, market performance disappointed relative to expectations as long-term holders supplied much of the marketable inventory. The analyst highlighted that ETF inflows slowed in 2025 versus 2024.
Beyond Bitcoin, Kraken flagged tokenization and DeFi token economics as longer-term drivers that could influence liquidity formation in 2026. Stablecoin liquidity has reached all-time highs, and US regulatory momentum including stablecoin legislation could reshape how onchain liquidity forms. The analysis suggests 2026 may look less like a familiar crypto cycle and more like a macro-driven stress test where market structure matters as much as price.
